Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation will have cascading effects on political leadership in Canada.
Trudeau’s recent cabinet shakeup, spurred by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s shock resignation in December, altered election timelines. Some expected a fall federal election as the Liberals under Trudeau held onto their minority government as long as possible in the hopes of more favourable polling numbers.
But Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s threat of a non-confidence vote when Parliament resumed after the holidays caused strife within the Liberal caucus, leading in part to Trudeau’s resignation and prorogation of Parliament until late March. These developments nearly guarantee a spring federal election, which could have an impact on provincial politics too.
Shared ideologies
Provincial parties are not formally integrated with their federal counterparts. But provincial political parties nonetheless share ideological positions with federal parties. The federal Conservatives and Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party, for example, co-operate and use similar political marketing strategies.
Trudeau has been a favourite talking point of Ontario’s Conservative Premier Doug Ford. Attacks on the carbon tax have helped fuel Ford’s popular support. But the conservative outlook across the provinces will change significantly with Trudeau stepping down and with a likely Conservative federal government after the next federal election.
Ford’s rhetorical tactic of focusing on the policies of a Liberal prime minister is nothing new. Many provincial parties have gained power by campaigning against the policies of the ruling federal government, and by attacking their provincial political rivals by branding them as being in lockstep with the prime minister’s party.
This dynamic is known as federal-provincial discontinuity. As Ford’s Progressive Conservatives continually link the Ontario Liberal Party to Trudeau’s Liberals using the carbon tax, they frame themselves as capable of standing up to the federal government and suggest other parties are incapable of doing so.
Liberals dominated provincial politics
When Trudeau took office in 2015, he was surrounded by mostly Liberal premiers. This was the cycle that countered Stephen Harper’s federal Conservative government.
Ontario, Québec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island all had Liberal premiers.
British Columbia also had a Liberal government, but the B.C. Liberal Party sharply diverges from the federal Liberals when compared to other provinces.
Alberta and Manitoba also had progressive governments under NDP leaders.
However, we have seen the cycle of federal-provincial discontinuity work against Trudeau over his time as prime minister. There have been a slew of conservative premiers taking office in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and surprising Progressive Conservative victories in Atlantic Canada. These premiers represent conservatives who marketed themselves as being able to stand up to Trudeau in Ottawa.
Furthermore, as the federal NDP aligned itself closely with the federal Liberals, their provincial performance weakened.
In B.C., the NDP faced stiff opposition from the provincial Conservative Party in the most recent provincial election though it ultimately prevailed.
The pendulum to swing back
If Poilievre wins the next federal election, which public opinion polls suggest is likely, the dynamics of federal-provincial discontinuity will probably change once again. The conservative counter-cycle under Trudeau will likely give way to a progressive counter-cycle under Poilievre.
Of the Conservative leaders who were elected during Trudeau’s time as prime minister, Ford is likely to be the first to face the consequences of the prime minister’s decision to resign.
Here’s how.
Given the ideological similarities between Ford and Poilievre, many expected an Ontario election in the fall of 2024 or sometime in early 2025 to allow the Ontario premier to secure a new mandate before Poilievre eats into his popularity.
Now, with a federal election likely to be called as soon as Parliament resumes sitting in late March, Ford is unlikely to get the chance to hold a snap election to pre-empt the spectre of changes at the federal level — unless he calls it now.
But even if Ford calls an Ontario election before Parliament resumes, he would not be able to avoid the spectre of an upcoming federal election — one without Trudeau that will likely result in Poilievre rising to power. That could hurt Ford’s re-election chances.
Trudeau’s resignation has opened up a vacuum in progressive leadership in Canada. Many will focus on a federal leader to fill this gap.
But given Poilievre’s strong position in the polls heading into the next federal election, that focus may be misplaced. It may be more prudent to look to the next wave of provincial premiers to see who will lead Canada’s progressive movement in the immediate future.